The Electoral Costs of Party Agenda Setting: Why the Hastert Rule Leads to Defeat

This study demonstrates that unconditional blocking of bills opposed by a majority of the majority party--as implied by the party cartel model and advocated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert--can produce conditions in which the majority party loses popular support and loses elections. The theoretical analysis and empirical results imply that the use of negative agenda power to block bills is circumscribed by this risk of electoral defeat. As a result, the opportunity for effective negative agenda control is conditional on majority party issue advantage, party polarization, and the distribution of status quo locations. In particular, majority party roll rates should sometimes be nonzero, blocking increases the odds of majority party defeat in House of Representatives elections, and policy change is most likely on issues with status quo that the model suggests are the riskiest to block

Is Bipartisanship Dead? Policy Agreement and Agenda-Setting in the House of Representatives

The title of Laurel Harbridge’s book Is Bipartisanship Dead? poses an important question, even if the answer is ultimately ambiguous. Although Harbridge persuasively concludes that “bipartisanship is not dead” (170), this book provides plenty of reason to worry about its health

The Political Economy of Congressional Patent Policymaking in the Late 20th Century

Beginning in the early 1980s, the U.S. Government reformed the patent law in ways that made patents easier to acquire and defend, but further efforts to expand the rights of patent owners had stalled by the mid-1990s. I use a political economy model to explain these changes in terms of the shifting constituency interests represented by members of the U.S. Congress. As the distribution of patenting became less skewed in the 1980s, more members represented constituencies likely to benefit from inefficient patent policy. But as the distribution of patent holding became more skewed once again in the later 1990s, support for expansions of patent rights decreased

Victory by the Weakest: Effects of Negative Advertising in N\u3e2 Candidate Campaigns

The truel, or three way duel, has distinct properties from duels: the weakest contestant often has a very good chance to win. This paper explores application of the logic of truels to election campaigns involving negative advertising. We show that negative campaigning that pits the leading candidates against each other can create circumstances in which the third (or worse) place candidate wins in one or more of the Nash equilibria of the game. We then study whether the simulated existence of an opportunity for Nash equilibrium victory by third place candidates predicts such outcomes in U.S. state-wide elections

A Model of Build Back Better Utilization: Long-Term Recovery Groups and Post-Disaster Housing Recovery

Housing recovery, especially for vulnerable populations, can be a challenging process. Questions regarding whether to rebuild damaged housing and whether to restore it to its previous state or to build back better must be answered. In the United States, Long-Term Recovery Groups (LTRGs) play a crucial role in channeling assistance to vulnerable community members as they embark on housing recovery. However, the experiences of LTRGs have been understudied. To address this gap, the study utilizes interviews with a diverse range of LTRG members and develops an agent-based model following the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol. The results highlight the consequences of adopting or not adopting a Build Back Better (BBB) approach in post-disaster recovery. Communities do not uniformly adhere to the same reconstruction approach, as evidenced by insights from LTRG interviews. BBB implementation is uneven in US LTRGs. BBB has higher initial costs but lower long-term costs because it increases community resilience and sustainability

Can the US and Europe Contain Russian Power in the European Energy Market? A Game Theoretic Approach

The Russian history of politicization of natural gas supplies led Europe to seek alternatives. US LNG is considered to be a viable alternative for Europe, which positioned the US as a strong competitor against Russia. In a game theoretic approach, we model this strategic decision-making process in simultaneous-move and sequential games. Our findings indicate a mixed strategy equilibrium: Europe cannot commit to diversify in the face of Russian advantages, and Russia cannot fully resist the temptation to politicize its supplies to Europe. The US might attempt to intervene in the European commitment problem through implementing sanctions on Russian gas sales. We find that in any case episodic Russian politicization remains likely in equilibrium

Assessing Spurious Correlations in Big Search Data

Big search data offers the opportunity to identify new and potentially real-time measures and predictors of important political, geographic, social, cultural, economic, and epidemiological phenomena, measures that might serve an important role as leading indicators in forecasts and nowcasts. However, it also presents vast new risks that scientists or the public will identify meaningless and totally spurious ‘relationships’ between variables. This study is the first to quantify that risk in the context of search data. We find that spurious correlations arise at exceptionally high frequencies among probability distributions examined for random variables based upon gamma (1, 1) and Gaussian random walk distributions. Quantifying these spurious correlations and their likely magnitude for various distributions has value for several reasons. First, analysts can make progress toward accurate inference. Second, they can avoid unwarranted credulity. Third, they can demand appropriate disclosure from the study authors

Learning from Small Subsamples without Cherry Picking: The Case of Non-Citizen Registration and Voting

The development of large sample surveys creates new opportunities for analysis of subpopulations that would hitherto have been impossible to examine systematically. But it also raises key challenges. Low level measurement error can potentially lead to substantial biases in estimates drawn from small subsamples. This study details strategies researchers may take to make inferences in the context of this subsample-response-error problem. In the non-citizen voting case, which recently has received substantial attention, we show that attention to any of these strategies -- group-specific response error estimates, correlated higher-frequency events, or test-retest validity – produces significant evidence that non-citizens participated in recent US elections. Additional hypotheses that follow from the measurement error assumption are also not supported. We identify future steps to improve the reliability of estimates through in-survey test-retest in order to facilitate accurate sub-population identification for analyses

A Gamefied Synthetic Environment for Evaluation of Counter-Disinformation Solutions

This paper presents a simulation-based approach to countering online dis/misinformation. This disruptive technology experiment incorporated a synthetic environment component, based on adapted SIR epidemiological model to evaluate and visualize the effectiveness of suggested solutions to the issue. The participants in the simulation were given a realistic scenario depicting a dis/misinformation threat and were asked to select a number of solutions, described in IoS (Ideas-of-Systems) cards. During the event, the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the IoS cards, were tested in a synthetic environment (SEN), built after a Susceptible-Infected-Resistant (SIR) model. The participants, divided into teams, presented and justified their dis/misinformation strategy which included three IoS card selections. A jury of subject matter experts, announced the winning team, based on the merits of the proposed strategies and the compatibility of the different cards, grouped together

A Valid Analysis of a Small Subsample: The Case of Non-Citizen Registration and Voting

The development of large sample surveys creates new opportunities for analysis of subpopulations that would hitherto have been impossible to examine systematically. But it also raises key challenges. Low level measurement error can potentially lead to substantial biases in estimates drawn from small subsamples. This study details strategies researchers may take to make inferences in the context of this subsample-response-error problem. In the non-citizen voting case, which recently has received substantial attention, we show that attention to any of these strategies -- group-specific response error estimates, correlated higher-frequency events, test-retest validity, or analysis of associated hypotheses – produces significant evidence that non-citizens participated in recent US elections. This reaffirms the validity of the core claim made by Richman, Chattha, and Earnest (2014): a small percentage of non-citizens vote in US elections